SARS is likely to spread Mystery illness probably won't be totally wiped out

Can severe acute respiratory syndrome be stopped?

As hard as health officials work to stamp out the virus, manyexperts conclude it's likely if not inevitable to eventually spreadeverywhere.

The highly contagious disease has already sickened more than 2,000people, and new cases appear daily in Hong Kong, despite an all-outeffort to isolate victims and quarantine those at risk.

Experts say the eventual course of any new disease is almostimpossible to predict. Some frightening new infections have burnedthemselves out, while others, like AIDS, have become globaldisasters.

However, several features of SARS make epidemiologists,virologists and infectious disease experts fear total victory isunlikely.

"Will it explode into a major epidemic that will propagate overthe years? Or will it fizzle out or be contained at a low rate?That's unknown," said Dr. Lee Harrison of the University ofPittsburgh. "I suspect we will see this disease for at least the nextseveral years. It's hard to imagine it will be over soon."

Perhaps the most ominous sign is the steep climb in new cases,especially in Hong Kong, which has seen a nearly fourfold increase injust two weeks.

The outbreak spurred the University of Illinois to call back fourstudents in Hong Kong. In the Chicago area, there are eight suspectedcases among residents who traveled to Hong Kong, Singapore or China.No one is hospitalized.

People who get the illness can spread the infection to othersbefore they even know they have it. While many are infected throughface-to-face contact, evidence is mounting that the virus might alsospread through the air or be picked up from contaminated surfaces.

On Friday, President Bush gave federal health officials the optionof quarantining Americans with SARS, although there is no plan to usethat power now. There are more than 100 suspected cases in the UnitedStates, but no one has died.

"Most people are hesitant to say it will just go away," said Dr.Ruth Berkelman, head of Emory University's Center for Public HealthPreparedness and Research. "Too many people are infected to think wewon't see it for a long time to come."

Besides quarantining the sick, health officials have tried tominimize the spread of the disease by urging people with suspicioussymptoms not to fly on airplanes.

However, some experts worry that those who are clearly sick maynot be the biggest concern. People catch bad colds from friends whohave mild ones. And the same may be true for this illness. Those whohave slight symptoms or even seem perfectly well still could spreadthe disease. In such a scenario, isolating the sick and quarantiningtheir contacts would not work.

"We may be able to slow transmission, but we won't be able to stopit if there are many other cases of milder disease out there," saidDr. Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan epidemiologist.

The cause of the outbreak is unknown, but investigators say mostevidence points to a previously unknown version of the coronavirus,the bug that causes about a third of all colds. Some who study thisfamily of viruses say that because it spreads through coughs andsneezes, they cannot imagine totally wiping it out.

AP